← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Wed, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 80% | 93% | 1.17 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 14% | 3% | 7.00 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 6% | 4% | 15.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 46.00 | 1383.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1352.56 | 1808.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.72 | 29.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 4.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.60 |
| league points | 23.00 | 76.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 19.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 2.45 |
| state index | -1.11 | 2.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |