← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Wed, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 44% | 46% | 2.15 | fair |
| NEC win | 28% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 13.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1403.02 | 1444.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.11 | -32.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| league points | 27.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 0.97 |
| state index | -0.53 | -1.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |