← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Tue, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 39% | 39% | 2.40 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 33% | 30% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.30 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3755.00 | 3573.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1437.62 | 1498.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.07 | -6.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| league points | 30.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.42 |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |