← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Tue, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 74% | 82% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 13% | 5.25 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 8% | 5% | 13.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 286.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1529.17 | 1327.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.12 | 3.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 50.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 0.48 |
| state index | 0.45 | -1.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |