← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Tue, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 41% | 37% | 2.30 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 32% | 34% | 3.00 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 133.00 | 651.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1683.69 | 1780.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.61 | 15.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| league points | 55.00 | 80.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 2.58 |
| state index | 1.19 | 1.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |