← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 60% | 69% | 1.57 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 3.80 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 15% | 10% | 6.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 10.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1563.28 | 1378.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.32 | -16.24 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| league points | 48.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| state index | 0.57 | -1.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |