← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 71% | 68% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 25% | 5.00 | value: +24% |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 10% | 7% | 10.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2749.00 | 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1555.58 | 1359.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.43 | -11.69 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.05 |
| league points | 42.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.77 |
| state index | 0.20 | -1.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |