← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sat, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 41% | 36% | 2.30 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 31% | 39% | 3.00 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2475.00 | 283.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1373.70 | 1531.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.83 | 27.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 25.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.63 |
| state index | -1.52 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |