← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sat, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 59% | 59% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.80 | fair |
| NEC win | 16% | 16% | 6.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 130.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1439.58 | 1688.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -44.41 | 27.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.55 |
| league points | 29.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.80 |
| state index | -1.11 | 1.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |