← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sat, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 45% | 45% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 27% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3570.00 | 1744.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1489.98 | 1491.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.02 | 23.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 41.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.27 |
| state index | -0.19 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |