← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Fri, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 51% | 62% | 1.80 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 26% | 16% | 3.75 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 23% | 22% | 4.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 3751.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1305.63 | 1459.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.79 | 13.31 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| league points | 12.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| state index | -2.13 | -0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |