← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 56% | 61% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
| NEC win | 18% | 15% | 5.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 277.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1522.41 | 1449.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.21 | -37.45 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.05 |
| league points | 46.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.00 |
| state index | 0.40 | -1.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |