← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 61% | 66% | 1.57 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.00 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 15% | 12% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 277.00 | 3564.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1624.66 | 1484.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.76 | -4.77 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 55.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 8.96 |
| season ppg | 1.90 | 1.38 |
| state index | 0.62 | -0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |