← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 77% | 91% | 1.20 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 16% | 3% | 6.00 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 7% | 6% | 15.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3.00 | 1373.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1381.14 | 1803.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.25 | 35.06 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 3.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| league points | 24.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.96 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 2.41 |
| state index | -1.03 | 1.96 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |