← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sat, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 64% | 71% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 17% | 4.20 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 13% | 12% | 7.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 123.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1680.42 | 1571.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.72 | 25.37 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| league points | 51.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.66 |
| state index | 1.36 | 0.55 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |