← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Mar 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 43% | 33% | 2.20 | fair |
| NEC win | 29% | 36% | 3.25 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 132.00 | 270.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1470.84 | 1649.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -56.18 | 9.51 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| league points | 28.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.96 | 13.96 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.89 |
| state index | -1.06 | 0.81 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |