← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sat, Mar 27, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 53% | 57% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.50 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 21% | 20% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3738.00 | 28.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1435.91 | 1368.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.03 | 6.74 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| league points | 24.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 0.82 |
| state index | -1.26 | -0.81 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |