← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sat, Mar 27, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 78% | 85% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 11% | 6.00 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 6% | 4% | 15.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 634.00 | 2461.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1769.16 | 1385.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.94 | -14.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 71.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.54 | 0.89 |
| state index | 1.36 | -1.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |