← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sat, Mar 27, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 68% | 73% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 4.75 | fair |
| Heracles win | 12% | 8% | 8.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 116.00 | 269.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1675.80 | 1527.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.12 | 25.01 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| league points | 48.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.64 |
| state index | 1.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |