← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 77% | 92% | 1.20 | value: +11% ⚠ |
| Draw | 15% | 4% | 7.00 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 8% | 3% | 12.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1359.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1321.02 | 1794.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.97 | 37.31 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 3.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| league points | 12.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.44 | 2.37 |
| state index | -1.80 | 1.82 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |