← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 62% | 71% | 1.53 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 23% | 14% | 4.33 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 14% | 14% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1724.00 | 110.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1412.50 | 1698.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.33 | 23.09 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| league points | 25.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.67 |
| state index | -0.62 | 1.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |