← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 55% | 63% | 1.67 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.75 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 19% | 10% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2728.00 | 1724.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1577.31 | 1475.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.76 | 21.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| league points | 39.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.19 |
| state index | 0.75 | 0.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |