← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sat, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 39% | 38% | 2.40 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 33% | 35% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 21.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1380.34 | 1555.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.65 | 26.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| league points | 23.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.56 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |