← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sat, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 46% | 52% | 2.00 | value: +4% |
| NAC Breda win | 27% | 21% | 3.50 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 262.00 | 3549.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1513.81 | 1487.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.64 | -32.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 43.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.37 |
| state index | 0.07 | -0.58 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |