← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Fri, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 53% | 58% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.60 | fair |
| NEC win | 20% | 18% | 4.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 626.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1490.56 | 1458.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.33 | -38.29 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| league points | 29.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.04 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.95 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |