← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 43% | 47% | 2.20 | value: +4% |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 29% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 15.00 | 2448.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1366.28 | 1404.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.75 | 13.16 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| league points | 20.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 0.96 |
| state index | -0.88 | -0.66 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |