← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 39% | 46% | 2.40 | value: +11% |
| SC Heerenveen win | 32% | 30% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3725.00 | 621.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1446.69 | 1479.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.97 | -4.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| league points | 24.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.00 |
| state index | -1.27 | -0.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |