← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 64% | 70% | 1.50 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.00 | fair |
| Heracles win | 13% | 10% | 7.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 256.00 | 256.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1628.64 | 1509.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.02 | 12.87 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| league points | 50.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 1.62 |
| state index | 0.52 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |