← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 48% | 52% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
| PSV win | 25% | 21% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1352.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1808.64 | 1814.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.10 | -17.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| league points | 61.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.35 | 2.50 |
| state index | 2.20 | 1.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |