← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sat, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 82% | 79% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 17% | 7.00 | value: +20% |
| Waalwijk win | 5% | 4% | 21.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 102.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1694.89 | 1354.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.04 | -23.08 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| league points | 42.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 0.46 |
| state index | 1.29 | -1.61 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |