← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Fri, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 76% | 81% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 14% | 6.00 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 7% | 5% | 13.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 619.00 | 7924.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1765.16 | 1394.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.84 | 8.59 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| league points | 67.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.58 | 0.88 |
| state index | 1.14 | -0.66 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |