← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 68% | 89% | 1.40 | value: +24% ⚠ |
| Draw | 20% | 6% | 4.75 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 12% | 6% | 8.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 614.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1326.42 | 1763.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.25 | -3.93 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 12.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.48 | 2.56 |
| state index | -1.55 | 1.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |