← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 67% | 64% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 4.75 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 13% | 17% | 7.50 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1710.00 | 1345.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1431.41 | 1803.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.49 | 37.54 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| league points | 25.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.32 |
| state index | -0.21 | 2.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |