← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sat, Mar 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 62% | 67% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 19% | 4.00 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 15% | 13% | 6.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 248.00 | 7.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1504.10 | 1371.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.94 | -18.01 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| league points | 39.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 0.80 |
| state index | -0.01 | -1.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |