← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sat, Mar 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 41% | 47% | 2.25 | value: +5% |
| Vitesse win | 31% | 27% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 7918.00 | 3717.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1395.16 | 1446.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.12 | -34.08 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 22.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 0.92 |
| state index | -0.60 | -1.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |