← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 67% | 74% | 1.40 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 21% | 17% | 4.50 | fair |
| NEC win | 12% | 9% | 8.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 607.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1760.56 | 1486.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.28 | 17.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| league points | 61.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.54 | 1.17 |
| state index | 1.21 | -0.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |