← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 36% | 36% | 2.60 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 35% | 35% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2434.00 | 3529.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1408.94 | 1489.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.22 | -10.21 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 24.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.38 |
| state index | -0.35 | -0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |