← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 82% | 86% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 10% | 7.50 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 5% | 3% | 21.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1794.95 | 1328.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.26 | -31.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| league points | 62.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.58 | 0.50 |
| state index | 1.28 | -1.45 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |