← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sat, Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 49% | 43% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.50 | value: +13% |
| Vitesse win | 24% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3710.00 | 88.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1457.58 | 1649.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.47 | -3.64 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 23.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.50 |
| state index | -0.83 | 0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |