← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sat, Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 53% | 57% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Heracles win | 20% | 18% | 4.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 606.00 | 241.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1498.91 | 1492.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.16 | -4.81 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| league points | 26.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.50 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |