← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Fri, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 38% | 40% | 2.50 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 33% | 27% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.25 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 7910.00 | 1701.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1405.38 | 1457.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.33 | 3.26 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 22.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.08 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |