← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 77% | 83% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 11% | 6.50 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 7% | 7% | 13.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 600.00 | 4618.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1759.22 | 1361.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.36 | -27.97 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| league points | 58.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 2.52 | 0.74 |
| state index | 1.08 | -1.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |