← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 81% | 85% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 11% | 7.50 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 6% | 4% | 17.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1696.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1838.24 | 1421.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.05 | 1.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 61.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.65 | 1.00 |
| state index | 1.67 | -0.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |