← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 77% | 86% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 11% | 6.50 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 7% | 4% | 13.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1331.00 | 3704.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1764.07 | 1461.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.51 | 0.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| league points | 52.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.26 | 1.00 |
| state index | 1.66 | -0.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |