← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Fri, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 46% | 46% | 2.05 | fair |
| Heracles win | 27% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1694.00 | 233.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1473.11 | 1526.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.60 | -7.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 23.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.57 |
| state index | -0.32 | -0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |