← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Wed, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 58% | 63% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.60 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 17% | 15% | 6.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 4614.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1497.09 | 1366.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.48 | -26.18 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| league points | 25.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.77 |
| state index | 0.31 | -1.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |