← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Feb 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 64% | 65% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 19% | 4.33 | fair |
| Heracles win | 14% | 16% | 7.00 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 228.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1506.17 | 1799.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.92 | 4.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| league points | 36.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 2.64 |
| state index | 0.12 | 1.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |