← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Feb 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 68% | 70% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 23% | 4.50 | value: +3% |
| Waalwijk win | 11% | 7% | 9.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2693.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1570.59 | 1369.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.67 | -11.87 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| league points | 27.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 0.55 |
| state index | 0.62 | -0.93 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |