← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sat, Feb 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 54% | 61% | 1.73 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.75 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 21% | 17% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 592.00 | 1323.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1498.88 | 1756.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.47 | 20.26 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| league points | 23.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 2.23 |
| state index | -0.10 | 1.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |