← Eredivisie 2009-10 · Sun, Feb 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 52% | 55% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 21% | 3.50 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 22% | 24% | 4.50 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1317.00 | 586.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1740.79 | 1771.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.96 | 2.12 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| league points | 46.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 2.19 | 2.62 |
| state index | 1.34 | 1.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |